GORS 2(15) Monitoring the accuracy of wheat area and production estimation with high-resolution/multi-temporal satellite images data in the Akkar-Tartous plain/Syria

Abstract

Abstract: As the most important strategic crop, wheat represent the core of food security. Therefore, its management must be carried out with an integrated vision for the production factors of the natural resource and human factors (from the planning stages to the application and monitoring the accuracy of their implementation) during the process of crop activity. This study aims to monitor the wheat crop during the growth stages until harvest, using high-resolution/multi-temporal satellite images data (sentinel-2) within the "time-place-spectrum" (TIPLAS) relationship depending on the "Spectral Wheat Production Prediction Program (SWYP), which designed under Syrian conditions. The area and yield estimated by space data are compared with that planned and that estimated agriculturally and ground check in the 2017 season in Akkar Plain in Tartous / Syria. The study reached the following results: The estimated area of ​​wheat from space images data reached 1656 hectares, at a rate greater than that marketed to cereal centers and seed multiplication by 48%, and less than the planned by 42%. While the estimated wheat production from space images data reached 6316 tons, at a rate greater than that marketed to grain centers and seed multiplication by 38%, and less than the planned by 38%. The accuracy of estimating the yield from space images data recorded 97% compared with field measurements for a number of test fields, where the average production of wheat fields recorded in the sampling process was 412 compared to 401 kg/dunum for the estimated from space images with a standard deviation of 100 and 85, respectively. The marketing value of the wheat produced and delivered to the cereal centers at harvest is the main factor that causes the existence of this great discrepancy between what is planned and that carried out versus field values, especially since the climatic factor was suitable for the growth and production of wheat in that season (2017).